I. Overview of the Current US Automotive Market
As of 2023, the total sales of light vehicles in the US reached 15.5 million units, with traditional fuel vehicles accounting for 83% (approximately 12.86 million units) and new energy vehicles (including pure electric and plug-in hybrid) making up 17% (approximately 2.64 million units). The penetration rate increased by 4 percentage points compared to 2022. The market shows a phased characteristic of “traditional fuel vehicles defending their position while new energy vehicles break through”.
The traditional vehicle base: Full-size pickup trucks (Ford F-Series, Chevrolet Silverado) occupy three of the top five sales positions, contributing 26% of the market share.
The growth pole of new energy: Tesla’s market share reaches 58% (Model Y annual sales of 350,000 units), but traditional automakers are accelerating their pursuit (sales of General Motors’ Ultium platform models increased by 142% year-on-year).
II. Core Dimension Comparative Analysis
1. Technical Performance and Adaptability to Usage Scenarios
Indicator Traditional Cars (Fuel/PHEV) New Energy Vehicles (BEV/PHEV)
Range 580km on average (no range anxiety) 345km on average for pure electric models (EPA standard)
Recharging Efficiency：
1 gas station per 13 square miles, 5-minute refueling 67,000 public fast charging stations (32% in California), 80% charged in 30 minutes
Low-temperature Adaptability Range reduction in winter ≤ 10% 25%-35% reduction for lithium iron phosphate batteries (Tesla’s thermal management optimized to 18%)
Power Performance 450kW peak power of V8 engine Significant advantage in instantaneous torque of electric motors (Hummer EV 1,000 horsepower)
2. Economic Comparison (Taking a mid-sized SUV as an example)
Purchase cost: The average price of a fuel vehicle is $42,300 versus $58,200 for an electric vehicle (the gap narrows to $8,000 after IRA subsidies).
Usage cost:
Fuel vehicle: Annual fuel cost is $2,150 (assuming a fuel price of $3.5 per gallon and an annual mileage of 15,000 miles).
Electric vehicle: Annual electricity cost is $550 (home charging at $0.15/kWh and supercharging at $0.40/kWh).
Residual value rate: The residual value rate of a fuel vehicle after three years is 58% versus 43% for an electric vehicle (Tesla Model 3 is an exception: 51%).
III. Consumer Behavior Insights (Based on J.D. Power Research)
1. Driving Factors of Vehicle Purchase Decisions
Petrol vehicle owners (accounting for 79%):
61% choose fuel vehicles due to “long-distance travel needs”;
47% are concerned about the insufficiency of charging infrastructure;
33% prefer the engine sound and driving ceremony.
New energy vehicle owners (accounting for 21%):
68% switch to electric vehicles due to “fuel cost savings”;
52% are motivated by federal/state subsidies (such as an additional $2,000 in California’s CVRP);
39% recognize the environmental value (reducing carbon footprint by 40%-60%).
2. Brand perception differences
Traditional brand loyalty: The repurchase rate of Ford/ Chevrolet users is 62%.
Impact of new energy brands: Tesla attracts 29% of potential luxury car buyers (BMW and Mercedes-Benz have the highest conversion rates).
IV. Policy Environment and Infrastructure Competition
1. Federal policy tilt
IRA Act (2022):
Electric vehicle tax credit: $7,500 (domestic battery content ≥ 50%, critical minerals ≥ 40%);
Charging station construction subsidy: up to $100,000 per station (aiming to build 500,000 public charging stations by 2030).
CAFE standards tightened: fuel efficiency must reach 49 mpg by 2026, forcing automakers to shift towards electrification.
2. State-level policy divergence
State Policy Intensity New Energy Penetration Rate
California Ban on the sale of fuel vehicles by 2035 + highest density of charging stations in the US 28.6%
Texas No subsidies + annual fee of $200 for electric vehicles 9.2%
New York Investment in charging infrastructure ($120 million) + restrictions on fuel vehicles entering the city 21.7%
V. Industry Chain Competition and Transformation Challenges
1. Transformation Pathways for Traditional Automakers
Ford: Splitting the internal combustion engine vehicle (Ford Blue) and electric vehicle (Ford Model e) divisions, with a target of 2 million electric vehicles in production capacity by 2026.
General Motors: Shutting down 30% of internal combustion engine vehicle factories, and reducing the battery cost of the Ultium platform to $100/kWh by 2023.
2. Comparison of supply chain risks
Fossil fuel vehicles: Rely on global crude oil trade (the U.S. shale oil self-sufficiency rate is 92%);
Electric vehicles: Dependence on foreign lithium, nickel, and cobalt exceeds 70% (IRA triggers a lithium mining investment boom in North America).
VI. Future Trends: The Coexistence Logic of Disruptors and Holdouts
1. Short term (before 2025):
The market share of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) may exceed 12% (Toyota’s Prime series has mature technology); fast charging technology iteration: 350kW ultra-fast charging stations become widespread (10 minutes of charging provides a range of 320km).
2. Medium and long term (2030):
Traditional cars retreat to the high-end: V8 engine models see an increase in premium rates (Dodge Challenger’s pure electric version retains sound simulation);
Electric vehicles become more accessible: Sodium-ion batteries enter mass production (cost reduced by 30%, models with a range of 400km priced under $25,000).
3. Disruptive variables:
Synthetic fuel (Porsche eFuel): When the cost drops to $5 per gallon, it can delay the phasing out of fuel vehicles;
Commercialization of solid-state batteries: With a range exceeding 800 km, it may reshape the market landscape. Conclusion
The “fuel-electric” rivalry in the US automotive market is essentially a multi-faceted game involving energy sovereignty, industrial interests, and consumer habits. Traditional vehicles maintain their core market share by leveraging the maturity of infrastructure and the versatility of application scenarios, while new energy vehicles continue to penetrate the market with the help of policy levers and technological iterations. In the next decade, the market will present a tripartite structure of “high-end customization of fuel vehicles, mass popularization of electric vehicles, and normalization of hybrid vehicles as a transitional option”, and geopolitical factors and technological innovation will become the key variables to disrupt the balance.
Best wish~~
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